The Underwriting Signal

Marine Conflict Monitor

Marine war-risk premium series, event-scraped from trade press with human review. Every point links its primary source. War-risk premiums lead physical trade flows — reroutings and transit declines — and are roughly coincident with commodity prices. Read the methodology before interpreting these as risk signals.

Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium

price_free_market loading…

% of hull value · event-driven · methodology

No approved observations yet. Data enters only after human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or interpolated values.

Red Sea war-risk premium

price_free_market loading…

% of hull value · event-driven · methodology

No approved observations yet. Data enters only after human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or interpolated values.

Black Sea war-risk premium

price_free_market loading…

% of hull value · event-driven · methodology

No approved observations yet. Data enters only after human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or interpolated values.

Israeli port calls war-risk premium

price_free_market loading…

% of hull value · event-driven · methodology

No approved observations yet. Data enters only after human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or interpolated values.

Brent crude spot price

cycle_control loading…

USD/bbl · daily · methodology

Data table (61 observations)
DateValueRangeSource
2026-05-26 102.75 fred
2026-05-27 97.11 fred
2026-05-28 95.47 fred
2026-05-29 92.88 fred
2026-06-01 98.29 fred
2026-06-02 98.49 fred
2026-06-03 101.69 fred
2026-06-04 98.98 fred
2026-06-05 97.29 fred
2026-06-08 97.46 fred
2026-06-09 94.15 fred
2026-06-10 95.73 fred
2026-06-11 92.84 fred
2026-06-12 88.64 fred
2026-06-15 84.36 fred
2026-06-16 80.5 fred
2026-06-17 80.33 fred
2026-06-18 79.35 fred
2026-06-19 80.46 fred
2026-06-22 76.49 fred
2026-06-23 75.69 fred
2026-06-24 72.09 fred
2026-06-25 73.74 fred
2026-06-26 70.16 fred
2026-06-29 71.59 fred
2026-06-30 70.46 fred
2026-07-01 69.24 fred
2026-07-02 68.53 fred
2026-07-03 68.68 fred
2026-07-06 69.56 fred
2026-07-07 71.78 fred
2026-07-08 76.5 fred
2026-07-09 74.46 fred
2026-07-10 74.34 fred
2026-07-13 81.62 fred
2026-07-14 83.69 fred
2026-07-15 83.08 fred
2026-07-16 81.23 fred
2026-07-17 85.01 fred
2026-07-20 86.99 fred
2026-07-21 93.85 fred
2026-07-22 94.12 fred
2026-07-23 105.32 fred
2026-07-24 100.31 fred
2026-07-27 91.82 fred
2026-07-28 85.51 fred
2026-07-29 91.95 fred
2026-07-30 91.91 fred
2026-07-31 96.95 fred
2026-08-03 88.9 fred
2026-08-04 86.47 fred
2026-08-05 86.65 fred
2026-08-06 89.65 fred
2026-08-07 87.62 fred
2026-08-10 92.74 fred
2026-08-11 93.26 fred
2026-08-12 92.52 fred
2026-08-13 92.03 fred
2026-08-14 92.02 fred
2026-08-17 92.43 fred
2026-08-18 95.29 fred

Threshold guides are empirical observations from the 2019–2026 episode record — not model outputs. Shaded area spans the quoted low–high range where sources quote a range (never collapsed to a midpoint).